Is Canada planning to cut defence spending? On the one hand, the Department of National Defence and Canadian Armed Forces (DND/CAF) must find about $900 million in cost savings over the four years. That certainly sounds like a cut. On the other hand, the defence minister insists that the defence budget is not being cut, since overall defence spending will continue to increase. Cut may not be the right word, but the previously planned increase of the defence budget is clearly being reduced.

Let’s use an analogy. If I’m driving a car and speeding up to 100km/hr, am going slower if I reduce the how quickly I’m getting to 100km/hr? I’m still going to reach 100, but I won’t get there as fast. I’m not stopping or reversing, but my speed is reduced and I’m going slower than I was on my way to 100.

Let’s consider another one. If I negotiate a 3% per year salary increase with my boss, is my pay being cut if that increase is suddenly reduced to 2% per year? My overall salary is still going up, but it still stings and feels like a loss. This is particularly true if I had made plans and commitments based on that 3% per year increase.

So, yes, the Canadian defence budget is still increasing. The rate of that increase, however, will be reduced by the $900 million over four years. The curve is still climbing, but the angle is lower. And it will still feel like a cut, since a good chunk of the defence budget over the coming years has already been allocated and committed, especially on the capital side. DND/CAF will have $900 million less after these reductions than before and that money will have to come out of somewhere.

The defence budget will continue to increase. The spending reductions are going to sting, nonetheless.